A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
